- Standard: 1¼ lb bone-in per person, with leftovers
- No leftovers wanted: 1 lb per person
- Over 20 lb: buy two smaller birds instead
- The one thing that matters: Thawing takes 24 hours per 4 to 5 lb. A 16 lb bird needs four days.
The turkey is the only item on the Thanksgiving list you cannot improvise. Everything else can be adjusted, substituted or bought on the way; a bird that is too small on the day is simply too small.
The good news is that the arithmetic is straightforward, and once you understand where the weight goes the chart makes sense rather than having to be memorized.
[Photo: a raw turkey on the scale in its wrapper, a written headcount list on the counter beside it]
The chart
Turkey size by headcount, plus the cooked meat it yields, the thawing days it needs, and roughly how long it roasts. One row is everything you need before you order.
| Guests | With leftovers | No leftovers | Cooked meat yield | Fridge thaw | Roast time (325°F) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 5 lb breast | 4 lb breast | ~2–3 lb | 1–2 days | 1½–2 hrs |
| 6 | 8 lb | 6 lb | ~4–5 lb | 2 days | 2½–3 hrs |
| 8 | 10 lb | 8 lb | ~5–6 lb | 2–3 days | 2¾–3 hrs |
| 10 | 12–13 lb | 10 lb | ~7–8 lb | 3 days | 3–3½ hrs |
| 12 | 15 lb | 12 lb | ~8–9 lb | 3–4 days | 3½–4 hrs |
| 14 | 17–18 lb | 14 lb | ~10 lb | 4 days | 4–4¼ hrs |
| 16 | 20 lb, or two 10 lb | 16 lb | ~11 lb | 4–5 days | 4¼–4½ hrs (one bird) |
| 20 | two 12–13 lb | two 10 lb | ~14–16 lb | 3 days each | 3–3½ hrs (side by side) |
| 30 | two 18 lb | two 15 lb | ~21–24 lb | 4–5 days each | 4–4½ hrs |
Children under about ten count as half an adult — but add a bird size back if the group skews to teenagers, big eaters, or people who came specifically for the turkey and the sandwiches.
The three ways this goes wrong, and their deadlines
- Too small is simply too small on the day — there is no fi. Err up.
- Too large (over ~20 lb) overcooks the breast by an hour while the centre catches up. Buy two instead.
- Still frozen Thursday morning is not recoverable by any method that gives a good result. Count the thaw days backwards from Thursday now.
Where the weight actually goes
A whole turkey is 40 to 45 percent bone and carcass; a 15 lb bird yields about 8 to 9 lb of meat.
A pound and a quarter per person sounds enormous until you work out what you are buying.
A whole turkey is roughly 40 to 45 percent bone, skin and carcass by weight. So a 15 lb bird yields somewhere around 8 to 9 lb of edible meat. Across twelve people that is about 11 oz each, a generous but not absurd portion, with enough left for sandwiches on Friday.
Drop to 1 lb per person and you get roughly 9 oz each and essentially no leftovers. Which is a legitimate choice, but make it deliberately — for a lot of households the leftovers are half the point of cooking a turkey at all.
The etra quarter-pound per person on the “with leftovers” figure works out to roughly two or three sandwiches, or one more family meal, per person. On a twelve-person bird that is the difference between Friday lunch and Friday-through-Sunday.
Why two smaller birds beat one enormous one
Above 20 lb, heat geometry overcooks the breast; two smaller birds cook faster and both come out right.
Above about 20 lb, buy two.
The reason is geometry. Heat enters a bird from the surface and travels inward, and as a turkey gets larger its volume grows much faster than its surface area. So a very large bird takes disproportionately longer to cook through, and the breast, which is closest to the surface and done at a lower temperature than the thigh, spends that whole etra time overcooking.
A 24 lb turkey has a genuinely difficult problem: by the time the thigh reaches 175°F, the breast has been past 160°F for well over an hour. Two 12 lb birds cook in far less time, both come out correct, and they fit in the oven side by side.
Two smaller birds also give you two sets of legs and wings, which is the part most people are quietly competing over.
The logistics: they need to fit in the oven side by side with air around each, they finish within about fifteen minutes of each other, and the practical rhythm is to carve the first while the second rests.
Turkey breast instead
For si or fewer, a bone-in breast roasts in ninety minutes and carves easily.
For si or fewer, a whole bird is often the wrong purchase. A bone-in breast of 4 to 6 lb feeds four to si, roasts in about ninety minutes rather than four hours, and carves easily.
You lose the dark meat and the carcass for stock, which some people mind a great deal. See Thanksgiving turkey breast, small Thanksgiving dinner ideas for four to si, and Thanksgiving for two.
Thawing, which is the deadline people miss
Twenty-four hours per 4 to 5 lb in the fridge; a 16 lb bird needs four full days.
This is where Thanksgiving plans actually fail.
A frozen turkey thaws in the fridge at roughly 24 hours per 4 to 5 lb. That is not a rough guide with slack in it; it is a fridge at 4°C moving heat slowly into a dense frozen mass.
- 12 lb: 3 days
- 16 lb: 4 days
- 20 lb: 5 days
- 24 lb: 6 days
Work backwards from Thursday and put it in the fridge earlier than feels necessary. A bird still frozen in the centre on Thursday morning is not recoverable by any method that produces a good result.
The cold-water method (submerged in cold water, changed every 30 minutes, about 30 minutes per pound) works but requires a sink you cannot use for si hours on the busiest morning of the year.
Fresh instead of frozen
A fresh turkey skips the thaw entirely, which removes the deadline that catches most people out. The trade is a tighter buying window — order ahead, collect one or two days before, and keep it in the coldest part of the fridge. It costs more per pound, and it needs the fridge space that a frozen bird would have needed anyway.
And if you are brining, the brining time comes after thawing. Add another one to two days.
Roasting time by size
At 325°F unstuffed, plan 2¾ to 4½ hours depending on weight; use a thermometer, not the clock.
At 325°F, unstuffed, roughly:
- 10 to 12 lb: 2¾ to 3 hours
- 14 to 16 lb: 3½ to 4 hours
- 18 to 20 lb: 4 to 4½ hours
- Turkey breast, 4 to 6 lb: 1½ to 2 hours
Use these to plan, and a thermometer to decide. Cook to 160°F in the thickest part of the breast, it carries to 165°F while resting, and 175°F in the thigh. Add 30 to 45 minutes of resting time to whatever the chart says. See the turkey cooking time chart.
Does it fit in your oven?
Measure the oven interior before buying; a 20 lb bird needs 18 inches of width and 14 inches of height.
Worth checking before you buy, not after.
A 20 lb turkey in a roasting pan needs roughly 18 inches of width and a good 14 inches of height with the pan underneath. Measure the oven interior, and remember you need room for air to circulate; a bird touching the sides or the roof will cook unevenly and burn where it touches.
Also check it fits in your fridge to thaw. This catches people out more often than the oven does.
From my kitchen
The first time I hosted Thanksgiving, I bought a 22 lb bird for siteen people and it was still frozen on Thursday morning. I spent three hours running it under cold water while the kitchen filled with steam, and the breast was dry by the time the thigh was safe.
The notebook has a page for turkey, and the first line on it is the thawing time. It is the line I check twice, and the line I check again on the Sunday before, and the line that has saved me more than once.
Now I buy two smaller birds and they go in the fridge four days out, and they come out on Thursday morning thawed and ready, and the house smells like butter and sage, and I am not running water at si in the morning.
Frequently asked questions
How many pounds of turkey per person?
One and a quarter pounds bone-in per person with leftovers, or one pound with none. A whole turkey is 40 to 45 percent bone and carcass, so a 15 lb bird yields about 8 to 9 lb of edible meat.
What size turkey for 10 people?
A 12 to 13 lb bird with leftovers, or 10 lb without. Count children under ten as half an adult.
Is it better to cook one large turkey or two smaller ones?
Two smaller ones, above about 20 lb. A very large bird cooks so slowly to the centre that the breast is badly overcooked by the time the thigh is done. Two 12 lb birds roast faster and both come out correct.
How much cooked turkey does a whole bird yield?
Roughly 55 to 60 percent of the raw weight, because 40 to 45 percent is bone, skin and carcass. A 15 lb bird gives about 8 to 9 lb of meat; a 20 lb bird about 11 lb.
Should I buy a fresh or frozen turkey?
Frozen is cheaper and can be bought weeks ahead, but needs three to five days to thaw in the fridge. Fresh skips the thaw and its deadline entirely, costs more, and must be collected one or two days before.
How long does a turkey take to thaw?
About 24 hours per 4 to 5 lb in the fridge, three days for a 12 lb bird, four days for 16 lb, five for 20 lb. Start earlier than you think, and add another day or two if you plan to brine it.
How long do I roast a turkey?
At 325°F unstuffed, roughly 2¾ to 3 hours for 10 to 12 lb, 3½ to 4 hours for 14 to 16 lb, and 4 to 4½ hours for 18 to 20 lb, plus 30 to 45 minutes resting. Cook to temperature, not to time.
The bottom line
A pound and a quarter per person, halved for young children. Above 20 lb, buy two birds instead of one. Check it fits the oven and the fridge before you buy. And start thawing four days out for a 16 lb bird — that is the deadline that actually catches people.
Save the chart and count the thawing days backwards from Thursday before you order.
— Pearl